What did the 2019 report predict?

The second edition looked ahead to language-model startups, privacy-preserving methods, education, and governance. It published 6 forecasts for the next twelve months; the complete original list appears on the predictions topic page.

Are these predictions graded on this page?

No. This archive preserves the original forecasts. Later assessments are linked separately through the predictions scorecard.

What funding threshold did the NLP startup forecast set?

It predicted that startups applying recent NLP advances would collectively raise more than $100 million over the next twelve months. The claim concerned aggregate fundraising, not one company’s valuation.

How did the report make its self-driving forecast measurable?

It predicted that no self-driving car company would exceed 15 million miles in 2019. That explicit threshold was part of its broader view that the technology remained largely in R&D.

Which organizations were targeted by the privacy-preserving ML forecast?

It specified adoption by a non-GAFAM Fortune 2000 company. Adoption by a large technology platform alone would not satisfy the organization type stated in the prediction.

What did the education forecast anticipate?

It anticipated purpose-built undergraduate AI degrees at higher-education institutions. That was more specific than adding an AI elective to an existing course catalog.

What two events were linked in the quantum-computing forecast?

The report predicted a Google hardware breakthrough followed by at least five new startups pursuing quantum machine learning. The forecast contained both a technical event and an entrepreneurial response.

What change did the governance forecast require?

It predicted a substantial governance-model change at at least one major AI company as governance became a larger concern. Greater public discussion alone was not the whole claim.

The 2019 forecasts, in their original form

The original conditions define the call

The report published 6 predictions for the next twelve months. Several combined a technical or commercial development with a threshold, deadline, or named group of organizations. Those details matter: an event that meets only part of a prediction should not silently count as the whole outcome.

Keep forecasts separate from later grading

The complete list below preserves the wording of the original report, with PDF line breaks removed. The predictions scorecard provides subsequent assessment separately. This archive keeps the original publication-time claim visible so readers can compare it with later evidence.

Some forecasts specified an outcome; others specified a response

The six predictions mixed measurable thresholds, such as capital raised and driving miles, with institutional changes in education and governance. Those are different kinds of claims. Reviewing them fairly requires preserving both the numbers and the organizations or behaviors the original wording identified.

The six forecasts, as published

There is a wave of new start-ups applying the recent breakthroughs from NLP research. Collectively they raise over $100M in the next 12 months.
Self-driving technology remains largely at the R&D stage. No self-driving car company drives more than 15M miles in 2019, the equivalent of just one year’s worth of 1,000 drivers in California.
Privacy-preserving ML techniques are adopted by a non-GAFAM Fortune 2000 company to beef up their data security and user privacy policy.
Institutions of higher education establish purpose-built AI undergraduate degrees to fill talent void.
Google has a major breakthrough in quantum computing hardware, triggering the formation of at least 5 new startups trying to do quantum machine learning.
As AI systems become more powerful, governance of AI becomes a bigger topic and at least one major AI company makes a substantial change to their governance model.

2019 report, PDF page 131. See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.

Measure	Reported value	Definition and source
Number of original forecasts	6	Count of the numbered predictions on the source slide.2019 report, PDF page 131
Forecast horizon	Next 12 months	Horizon stated on the original prediction slide.2019 report, PDF page 131