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STATE OF AI REPORT PREDICTIONS.
The State of AI Report Predictions index tracks every forecast we've made in the annual State of AI Report since 2018. As a running, public scorecard it lets us check our own calibration over time, and put the year ahead to a live crowd forecast.
53%
hit rate
59 forecasts graded since 2018
59% with partial credit · 10 open for 2026
How we grade, and where we are wrong
59% with partial credit · 10 open for 2026
How we grade, and where we are wrong
Calls we got right
2020 → HIT
"Attention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results."
✓ Vision Transformers topped ImageNet shortly after, and have anchored frontier vision research ever since.
2020 → HIT
"NVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm."
✓ Deal abandoned in Feb 2022 after regulators pushed back.
2024 → HIT
"An open-source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks."
✓ DeepSeek-R1 outperformed o1 three months later.
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Prediction essays essays and post-mortems on our forecasts
Can AI agents make scientific discoveries?Why the report is watching autonomous scientific work.
Open models are now geopoliticsHow open-weight releases became industrial strategy.
AI infrastructure is becoming local politicsCompute meets power, land, water, voters, and permits.
The next AI backlash will be culturalWhen audiences like the work and dislike how it was made.
Could China take the frontier AI lead?Why a public leaderboard moment would matter.
Will AI agents do your shopping?Instant Checkout, agent payments, and the 5% test.
When does an AI attack become a diplomatic incident?AI-run espionage is real; the emergency debate is not, yet.
Who gets to regulate AI in America?The executive order landed. The courts decide the rest.
Why we were wrong about humanoidsA useful miss about capital, platforms, and robotics.
Why we were wrong about AppleRight trend, wrong protagonist, and a $1B Gemini deal.
How accurate is the State of AI Report?Hit rates by year and topic, and how we grade ourselves.
Will we be right about 2026? our 10 live forecasts — cast your vote
Every prediction
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Verdicts and predictions are drawn from the annual State of AI Report decks, 2018-2025. Data sources.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.