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STATE OF AI REPORT PREDICTIONS.
🏠 Home 📝 Take the Survey! 📧 Air Street PressThe State of AI Report Predictions index tracks every forecast we've made in the annual State of AI Report since 2018. As a running, public scorecard it lets us check our own calibration over time, and put the year ahead to a live crowd forecast.
53%
hit rate
59 forecasts graded since 2018
66% with partial credit · 10 open for 2026
66% with partial credit · 10 open for 2026
Calls we got right
2020 → HIT
"Attention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results."
✓ Vision Transformers topped ImageNet shortly after, and have anchored frontier vision research ever since.
2020 → HIT
"NVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm."
✓ Deal abandoned in Feb 2022 after regulators pushed back.
2024 → HIT
"An open-source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks."
✓ DeepSeek-R1 outperformed o1 three months later.
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Every prediction
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Verdicts and predictions are drawn from the annual State of AI Report decks, 2018-2025. Data sources.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.