What did the 2018 report predict?

The inaugural forecasts linked research progress with drug discovery, acquisitions, and semiconductor geopolitics. It published 8 forecasts for the next twelve months; the complete original list appears on the predictions topic page.

Are these predictions graded on this page?

No. This archive preserves the original forecasts. Later assessments are linked separately through the predictions scorecard.

What did the report predict about reinforcement learning and games?

It predicted a DeepMind breakthrough using reinforcement learning to play StarCraft. This was a forward-looking claim in the 2018 edition, not a result already established on that slide.

What was the drug-discovery forecast?

The report predicted positive trial results for the first therapeutic drug discovered using machine learning. The forecast concerned trial evidence, rather than simply generating a promising molecule.

What acquisition threshold did the report set?

It predicted that Chinese- and American-headquartered technology companies would buy European machine-learning companies for more than $5 billion in aggregate. The geography and combined value were part of the claim.

How did the blocked-acquisition forecast define a leading company?

It used a valuation above $100 million and specified an OECD government blocking an acquisition by a US- or Chinese-headquartered technology company. Those conditions were integral to the forecast.

What role did semiconductors play in the forecasts?

The report predicted that access to Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor companies would become an explicit part of the US-China trade conflict. It connected AI competition to hardware access.

What did it mean for a research institution to go dark?

The forecast described a major institution withholding important work from open publication for geopolitical reasons. It concerned a change in disclosure behavior, rather than an institution simply closing.

The 2018 forecasts, in their original form

The original conditions define the call

The report published 8 predictions for the next twelve months. Several combined a technical or commercial development with a threshold, deadline, or named group of organizations. Those details matter: an event that meets only part of a prediction should not silently count as the whole outcome.

Keep forecasts separate from later grading

The complete list below preserves the wording of the original report, with PDF line breaks removed. The predictions scorecard provides subsequent assessment separately. This archive keeps the original publication-time claim visible so readers can compare it with later evidence.

Read the conditions, not just the theme

The forecasts included concrete qualifiers: acquisition value, company valuation, geography, and a twelve-month horizon. A later event resembling the topic would not necessarily meet the original prediction. Keeping those conditions visible makes retrospective assessment more useful than loosely matching a headline to a forecast.

The eight forecasts, as published

A lab located in China makes a significant research breakthrough.
DeepMind has a breakthrough result successfully applying RL to learn how to play Starcraft.
Deep learning continues to dominate the discussion without major alternatives appearing.
The first therapeutic drug discovered using machine learning produces positive results in trials.
Chinese and American headquartered technology companies make acquisitions of machine learning companies based in Europe totalling over $5b.
The government of an OECD country blocks the acquisition of a leading machine learning company (defined as valuation >$100m) by a US or Chinese headquartered technology company.
Access to Taiwanese and South Korean semiconductor companies becomes an explicit part of the trade war between America and China.
A major research institution “goes dark” by refraining from publishing key work in the open due to geopolitical concerns.

2018 report, PDF page 152. See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.

Measure	Reported value	Definition and source
Number of original forecasts	8	Count of the numbered predictions on the source slide.2018 report, PDF page 152
Forecast horizon	Next 12 months	Horizon stated on the original prediction slide.2018 report, PDF page 152