Forecasts span models, markets, and regulation
The report predicted an open alternative surpassing o1 on a range of reasoning benchmarks, continued NVIDIA strength, and softer early implementation of the EU AI Act. These were prospective judgments made in October 2024, not findings about what had already happened.
The previous year’s claims remain visible
The report revisited all ten 2023 predictions, marking five YES, three NO, and two with a partial or unresolved symbol. It included evidence alongside each judgment. Those labels are the report’s own assessments; they are preserved here without turning partial calls into successes.
Predictions invite later scrutiny
The 2024 list included concrete triggers: a sovereign investment above $10 billion prompting national-security review, an AI Scientist paper accepted at a major conference or workshop, and a breakout game built around generative elements. Their specificity made it possible to revisit what the report had actually forecast.
The ten forecasts, as published
- A $10B+ investment from a sovereign state into a US large AI lab invokes national security review.
- An app or website created solely by someone with no coding ability will go viral (e.g. App Store Top-100).
- Frontier labs implement meaningful changes to data collection practices after cases begin reaching trial.
- Early EU AI Act implementation ends up softer than anticipated after lawmakers worry they’ve overreached.
- An open source alternative to OpenAI o1 surpasses it across a range of reasoning benchmarks.
- Challengers fail to make any meaningful dent in NVIDIA’s market position.
- Levels of investment in humanoids will trail off, as companies struggle to achieve product-market fit.
- Strong results from Apple’s on-device research accelerates momentum around personal on-device AI.
- A research paper generated by an AI Scientist is accepted at a major ML conference or workshop.
- A video game based around interacting with GenAI-based elements will achieve break-out status.
2024 report, slide 205 (PDF page 206). See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.