Predictions turn the report’s themes into testable claims
The list included generative visual effects in a Hollywood-grade production, a billion-dollar training run, investigations of the Microsoft/OpenAI partnership, and limited progress toward global governance. These were prospective claims made in October 2023, not descriptions of completed events.
The report revisits its earlier calls
The 2023 scorecard reviewed nine forecasts from 2022. It marked five YES, three NO, and one partial. Evidence accompanied each judgment, including cases where a related development had occurred without matching the prediction exactly. This archive preserves the report’s grading rather than retrospectively replacing it.
The horizon is the following twelve months
Some predictions named the 2024 election cycle or specific commercial thresholds. Others concerned whether agents would set a new state of the art in a complex environment. Keeping those conditions visible matters: a nearby development is not automatically the event that was forecast.
The ten forecasts, as published
- A Hollywood-grade production makes use of generative AI for visual effects.
- A generative AI media company is investigated for its misuse during in the 2024 US election circuit.
- Self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science).
- Tech IPO markets unthaw and we see at least one major listing for an AI-focused company (e.g. Databricks).
- The GenAI scaling craze sees a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model.
- The US’s FTC or UK’s CMA investigate the Microsoft/OpenAI deal on competition grounds.
- We see limited progress on global AI governance beyond high-level voluntary commitments.
- Financial institutions launch GPU debt funds to replace VC equity dollars for compute funding.
- An AI-generated song breaks into the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 or the Spotify Top Hits 2024.
- As inference workloads and costs grow significantly, a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquires or builds an inference-focused AI chip company.
2023 report, slide 157 (PDF page 157). See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.