All topicsSTATE OF AI REPORT. 2022

Diffusion spreads and scaling laws change

The 2022 report followed a rapid expansion in generative models. Diffusion systems made high-quality image generation broadly visible, while Chinchilla showed that model size alone was the wrong guide to training investment. New independent labs challenged the idea that leading results had to come from a few established organizations.

Questions in this section

What did Chinchilla change about scaling language models?Why did diffusion models matter in 2022?How large was Chinchilla?Did Chinchilla show that the largest model always performed best?What did undertraining mean in the scaling discussion?Which image-generation systems illustrated diffusion’s progress?Did the report restrict diffusion to still images?How did Minerva differ from a formal theorem prover?

Diffusion models make image generation a major frontier

Diffusion models learn to undo noise and generate an image by progressively refining a noisy starting point. The report tracked DALL-E 2, Imagen, and Stable Diffusion, alongside early extensions into video and other types of data.

Diffusion models make image generation a major frontier - 2022 report, slide 30
Diffusion models make image generation a major frontier. 2022 report, slide 30 (PDF page 30)

Independent labs widen access

Stability AI and Midjourney appeared with competitive text-to-image systems. Stable Diffusion’s release let developers build on an available model, changing who could experiment and develop products. Availability and capability were separate from resolving licensing, misuse, or reliability questions.

Independent labs widen access - 2022 report, slide 32
Independent labs widen access. 2022 report, slide 32 (PDF page 32)

Chinchilla emphasizes data as well as parameters

DeepMind’s 70-billion-parameter Chinchilla was trained on 1.4 trillion tokens. The report described improved results from allocating more of the compute budget to training data rather than simply increasing parameter count. The finding was about a compute-efficient training balance, not a claim that size no longer mattered.

Chinchilla emphasizes data as well as parameters - 2022 report, slide 26
Chinchilla emphasizes data as well as parameters. 2022 report, slide 26 (PDF page 26)

Mathematical reasoning advanced through different approaches

Google’s Minerva used a language model trained further on scientific and mathematical text, combined with intermediate reasoning steps and majority voting. It scored 50.3% on MATH in the report. OpenAI’s work instead used a theorem prover in the Lean formal environment. These were distinct approaches: Minerva’s benchmark could check a final answer without establishing that every reasoning step was valid, while formal proving imposed explicit rules on the proof.

Mathematical reasoning advanced through different approaches - 2022 report, slide 24
Mathematical reasoning advanced through different approaches. 2022 report, slide 24 (PDF page 24)

Evidence you can use

AI progress in the 2022 report

Historical snapshot: October 2022. Dates and populations are specified per row.

AI progress in the 2022 report
MeasureReported valueDefinition and source
Chinchilla model size70B parametersModel specification in the scaling-law discussion.2022 report, slide 26 (PDF page 26)
Chinchilla training data1.4T tokensTraining token count reported for Chinchilla.2022 report, slide 26 (PDF page 26)
Image-generation methodDiffusionFamily of methods discussed for DALL-E 2, Imagen, and Stable Diffusion.2022 report, slide 30 (PDF page 30)

Model specifications are not direct quality scores. The scaling finding applies to the studied training regime, while generative-image examples reflect the state of the field before ChatGPT’s public launch.

Frequently asked questions

Sources and dates

Historical snapshot published October 11, 2022. This web edition was prepared on 2026-10-11 from the online deck and original launch posts. Findings and forecasts retain their original time frame.

  1. 2022 report, slide 24 (PDF page 24)Original 2022 report. Printed slide numbers match PDF pages.
  2. 2022 report, slide 26 (PDF page 26)Original 2022 report. Printed slide numbers match PDF pages.
  3. 2022 report, slide 30 (PDF page 30)Original 2022 report. Printed slide numbers match PDF pages.
  4. 2022 report, slide 32 (PDF page 32)Original 2022 report. Printed slide numbers match PDF pages.
  5. State of AI Report 2022: online slides
  6. Air Street Press launch essayOctober 11, 2022.
  7. Welcome to State of AI Report 2022Original website launch post, October 11, 2022.

Cite this page

Benaich, Nathan, and Ian Hogarth. “Diffusion spreads and scaling laws change.” State of AI Report 2022. Historical report snapshot; web edition prepared 2026-10-11.