The original conditions define the call
The report published 9 predictions for the next twelve months. Several combined a technical or commercial development with a threshold, deadline, or named group of organizations. Those details matter: an event that meets only part of a prediction should not silently count as the whole outcome.
Keep forecasts separate from later grading
The complete list below preserves the wording of the original report, with PDF line breaks removed. The predictions scorecard provides subsequent assessment separately. This archive keeps the original publication-time claim visible so readers can compare it with later evidence.
The forecasts anticipated changes around model development
The list included training-data scale, developer uptake, financing, semiconductor valuations, and commercial access to user-generated content. These claims made the report’s view of the next year broader than model benchmarks alone. Each retained its own threshold, actor, and time condition for later assessment.
The nine forecasts, as published
- A 10B parameter multimodal RL model is trained by DeepMind, an order of magnitude larger than Gato.
- NVIDIA announces a strategic relationship with an AGI focused organisation.
- A SOTA LM is trained on 10x more data points than Chinchilla, proving data-set scaling vs. parameter scaling
- Generative audio tools emerge that attract over 100,000 developers by September 2023.
- GAFAM invests >$1B into an AGI or open source AI company (e.g. OpenAI).
- Reality bites for semiconductor startups in the face of NVIDIA’s dominance and a high profile start-up is shut down or acquired for <50% of its most recent valuation.
- A proposal to regulate AGI Labs like Biosafety Labs gets backing from an elected UK, US or EU politician.
- >$100M is invested in dedicated AI Alignment organisations in the next year as more people become aware of the risk we are facing by letting AI capabilities run ahead of safety.
- A major user generated content site (e.g. Reddit) negotiates a commercial settlement with a start-up producing AI models (e.g. OpenAI) for training on their corpus of user generated content.
2022 report, slide 108 (PDF page 108). See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.