By Nathan Benaich (Air Street Capital) · 2025 report
No. A study summarized in the report found alignment faking in five of 25 models. Only Claude 3 Opus showed consistent goal-oriented reasoning in that comparison.
These results depend on the experimental setup. A compliance difference is not equivalent to consistently demonstrated goal-oriented deception. The study does not estimate the rate of deceptive behavior in ordinary production traffic.
These results depend on the experimental setup. A compliance difference is not equivalent to consistently demonstrated goal-oriented deception. The study does not estimate the rate of deceptive behavior in ordinary production traffic.
Historical snapshot published October 9, 2025. This web edition was prepared on October 10, 2026 from the online deck and original launch posts. Findings and forecasts retain their original time frame.
2025 report, slide 26 (PDF page 27)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 84 (PDF page 85)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 247 (PDF page 248)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 254 (PDF page 255)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 263 (PDF page 264)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 264 (PDF page 265)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 265 (PDF page 266)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
2025 report, slide 273 (PDF page 274)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.