The original conditions define the call
The report published 8 predictions for the next twelve months. Several combined a technical or commercial development with a threshold, deadline, or named group of organizations. Those details matter: an event that meets only part of a prediction should not silently count as the whole outcome.
Keep forecasts separate from later grading
The complete list below preserves the wording of the original report, with PDF line breaks removed. The predictions scorecard provides subsequent assessment separately. This archive keeps the original publication-time claim visible so readers can compare it with later evidence.
The forecast list connected capability, capital, and institutions
The predictions ranged from more efficient image models to a semiconductor acquisition, ASML’s valuation, and the formation of a new research company. That breadth reflected a view that AI progress depended on organizational and industrial changes as well as benchmark gains.
The eight forecasts, as published
- Transformers replace recurrent networks to learn world models with which RL agents surpass human performance in large and rich game environments.
- ASML’s market cap reaches $500B.
- Anthropic publishes on the level of GPT, Dota, AlphaGo to establish itself as a third pole of AGI research.
- A wave of consolidation in AI semiconductors with at least one of Graphcore, Cerebras, SambaNova, Groq, or Mythic being acquired by a large technology company or major semiconductor incumbent.
- Small transformers + CNN hybrid models match current SOTA on ImageNet top-1 accuracy (CoAtNet-7, 90.88%, 2.44B params) with 10x fewer parameters.
- DeepMind releases a major research breakthrough in the physical sciences.
- The JAX framework grows from 1% to 5% of monthly repos created as measured by PapersWithCode.
- A new AGI-focused research company is formed with significant backing and a roadmap that’s focused on a sector vertical (e.g. developer tools, life science).
2021 report, slide 183 (PDF page 183). See the predictions scorecard for subsequent grading.