By Nathan Benaich (Air Street Capital)2026 estimates · inputs through September 1
The 2026 citation figures are estimates, not a completed-year census. The chart notes say they combine counts as of September 1, 2026 with predictions for the second half of the year, adjusted for volume. Read the final-year values as projected annual research use. They should not be described as papers already observed across the whole of 2026.
Keep the data periods separate: the chip-citation estimates use September 1 inputs, the fleet inventory has an October 1 cutoff, and the research-topic analysis uses a January-to-June 2025 sample. The published citation notes do not provide a complete reproducible forecasting formula or confidence intervals. That limits how precisely a reader can assess forecast uncertainty or compare a small difference between chips.
Citation estimates use inputs through September 1, 2026; fleet counts have an October 1, 2026 cutoff. The research-topic sample covers January 1 to June 1, 2025. See each answer for its period and limitations.
All data sourcesBenaich, Nathan. “Are the 2026 chip-use figures observed counts or forecasts?” State of AI Report Compute Index. Web page updated 2026-10-11; data periods as specified above.