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Last year’s predictions, graded in 2026

By Nathan Benaich (Air Street Capital)

Selected evidence from the State of AI Report 2026, with the period, source, and definitions needed to interpret it.

Evidence you can use

Last year’s predictions, graded in 2026

2025 predictions assessed for the 2026 report

Last year’s predictions, graded in 2026
OutcomeNumber
HitSource2
Partial outcomeSource5
MissSource3

This scorecard covers ten predictions from the prior edition. It is separate from the nine new predictions for 2027. The data-center opposition prediction is a partial outcome because the effect on November’s elections remains unresolved.

Sources: State of AI Report 2026, slide 237: Our 2025 Prediction Outcome and evidence.

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Sources and dates

2026 report snapshot. Preview revised 2026-10-07. Individual data periods and source checks are listed below. This is not a claim that every source was updated on that date.

  1. State of AI Report 2026, slide 237: Our 2025 Prediction Outcome and evidence2026 report snapshot. Read against the report PDF on 2026-10-07. Study-specific limits retained.
  2. State of AI Report 2026, slide 238: 9 predictions for the next 12 months2026 report snapshot. Read against the report PDF on 2026-10-07. Study-specific limits retained.

Cite this page

Benaich, Nathan. “Last year’s predictions, graded in 2026.” State of AI Report 2026. Published 2026-10-08.

Read the analysis: What does the State of AI Report predict for 2027?