2024 predictions graded in the 2025 report
Evidence you can use
2024 predictions graded in the 2025 report
Grading published October 9, 2025
| Measure | Reported value | Definition and source |
|---|---|---|
| Hits | 5 | Marked YES in the original scorecard2025 report, slide 10 (PDF page 11) |
| Partial outcomes | 2 | Marked with a tilde in the original scorecard2025 report, slide 10 (PDF page 11) |
| Misses | 3 | Marked NO in the original scorecard2025 report, slide 10 (PDF page 11) |
This is the 2025 report’s contemporaneous grading of predictions made in 2024. It does not grade the ten new forecasts published in the 2025 report. Later outcomes are available in the separate predictions scorecard.
Sources and dates
Historical snapshot published October 9, 2025. This web edition was prepared on October 10, 2026 from the online deck and original launch posts. Findings and forecasts retain their original time frame.
- 2025 report, slide 10 (PDF page 11)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
- 2025 report, slide 304 (PDF page 305)Original 2025 report. Slide numbers printed in the deck are one lower than PDF page numbers because the cover is unnumbered.
- State of AI Report 2025: online slides
- Nathan Benaich: The State of AI Report 2025Air Street Press, October 9, 2025.
- Welcome to State of AI Report 2025Original website launch post, October 9, 2025.
Cite this page
Benaich, Nathan. “2024 predictions graded in the 2025 report.” State of AI Report 2025. Historical report snapshot; web edition prepared 2026-10-10.