{
  "title": "Quarterly decline in cost at a fixed score",
  "period": "2023 onward. Analysis published 2026-09-22",
  "compiled_on": "2026-10-07",
  "scope": "Selected figures compiled for an unpublished report preview; not a full underlying dataset",
  "methodology": "These are the model-free estimates in Epoch AI’s Table 1. The average quarterly decline is 47.0%. The comparison holds benchmark performance fixed. A forecast of total spending also needs usage, task difficulty, and the number of model calls.",
  "rows": [
    {
      "Benchmark": "AIME (OTIS Mock)",
      "Cost decline": "47.1%",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought",
      "source_period": "2026-09-22",
      "verification": "Primary source checked 2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "Benchmark": "Chess puzzles",
      "Cost decline": "43.0%",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought",
      "source_period": "2026-09-22",
      "verification": "Primary source checked 2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "Benchmark": "FrontierMath, tiers 1-3",
      "Cost decline": "53.1%",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought",
      "source_period": "2026-09-22",
      "verification": "Primary source checked 2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "Benchmark": "GPQA Diamond",
      "Cost decline": "47.0%",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought",
      "source_period": "2026-09-22",
      "verification": "Primary source checked 2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "Benchmark": "Mystery game puzzles",
      "Cost decline": "44.0%",
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/publications/the-plunging-price-of-thought",
      "source_period": "2026-09-22",
      "verification": "Primary source checked 2026-10-07"
    }
  ]
}